US and Canadian Wine Businesses Optimistic on Growth But Tariffs and Young Consumer Demand Are Risks

More than 70% of wineries in the US and Canada expect to see their sales grow over 5% in the next five years, according to the 2025 BMO Wine Market Report. However, there are risks to the outlook. Escalating trade disputes between the world’s top wine markets will have a profound impact on the global wine trade. In addition, many wine consumers are reducing their drinking because of a general desire to improve their health.

Based on a comprehensive survey of US and Canadian wineries and an analysis of consumer data, this year’s report is the result of the Wine Industry Partnership, a unique collaboration between the BMO Wine & Spirits Group, Gomberg Fredrikson & Associates and bw166, WineBusiness Analytics, and Wine Opinions.

Below are highlights from the report.

US Wineries: Crowded and Competitive Market

Two bar charts with data for US wineries, with one showing percentage expecting higher annual sales in 2025 of 62% vs 71% in 2024 and another chart showing percentage expecting lower annual sales in 2025 of 13% vs 6% in 2024.

71% of all wineries expected to increase their total sales in 2024. That share declined to 62% in this year’s survey and the share of wineries expecting a sales decrease rose from 6% to 13%.
US wineries with an average bottle price of more than $20 performed better in 2024 than those with an average price of less than $20.
36% of US wineries reported sales growth in 2024, down from 41% in 2023, according to the survey.

Canadian Wineries: Hopeful for Growth

Graphic of a wine bottle with text saying 70% of all wineries in Canada expect sales to increase this year and that the average expected increase was jut below 15%.

70% of all wineries in Canada expect their sales to increase this year and the average expected increase was just under 15%.
43% of the wineries in Canada said sales in 2024 were as expected or better than expected.
Canadian wine businesses say top risks to their outlook include slowing sales and the changing tastes and demographics of customers.

Focused on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Sales Strategies

Data visualization showing 46% of US wineries planning to increase revenue in 2025 through direct-to-consumer and wine club strategies, 14% are focused on increasing points of distribution, and 11% are focused on new distributors.

When asked to rank their top approaches to increasing revenue in 2025, the No. 1 answer among US wineries was increasing wine club sales as part of their DTC programs. Finding a new distributor and expanding into new markets were the next most common approaches.
Nearly 60% of US wineries surveyed expect their DTC sales to increase in the coming year.
76% of Canadian wineries say DTC sales growth will help them increase overall sales in the coming year.

Young Consumers Send Mixed Message on Wine

Two charts: US median share of revenue from US wine clubs at 36% Boomers, 30% Gen X, 17% Milliennials and 5% Gen Z, and Canadian wineries direct-to-consumer business comprised of 25% Boomers, 40% Gen X, 20% Millennials and 5% Gen Z.

In US wine clubs, Boomers continue to claim the highest share on average at 36% followed by Gen X with 30% and Millennials at 17%. Gen Z accounts for the lowest share, 5%.
For Canadian wineries’ DTC business, Gen X and Boomers account for 65% of the median share of revenue for a typical winery in Canada while Millennials claim 20% and Gen Z is the source of 5% of revenue.
Among wine drinkers, 21-39-year-old consumers have driven an increase in those who have increased consumption since the pandemic.
Wine consumption among Boomers will continue to decline as they grow older yet demand from Gen X and older Millennials does not appear to be completely offsetting that decline.

Export Market Disruptions Coming?

Graphic showing maps of California and Canada, with text saying the retail value of wine imports in Canada is estimated at more than US$1 billion.

In 2024, Canada was the largest single nation market for US packaged exports that came to $423 million, which was 4% less than the year prior. The retail value of those imports, 95% of which come from California, is estimated to be more than US$1 billion.
65% of US wineries surveyed were planning to invest more to build their export program this year. Their top market is Canada with the EU a distant second.
Nearly 40% of Canadian wineries surveyed export wine. China is the top export market, followed by the EU.

View the second annual ‌BMO Wine Market Report‌.