The volatile tariff situation is far and away the most consequential current macro issue with potentially adverse implications for inflation, the near-and long-term direction of interest rates, and ultimately, the growth outlook for interest rate-sensitive sectors such as homebuilding and manufacturing that are significant generators of truck freight. The tariff flareup is particularly untimely for the for-hire trucking industry. The potential introduction of new tariffs cast doubt on growingoptimism that a fragile equilibrium of capacity and freight generation was within reach and, likewise, an end to the industry’s worst-ever profit recession. That said, if new tariffs were to come about and result in an extension of the freight recession,there are silver linings, including the likelihood of an additional flush of barely viable carriers that have extended the natural for-hire market re-balancing process. Further, a weaker-than-expected macro backdrop may finally break the fever of prohibitively expensive private fleet capacity expansion that has also impeded a for-hire recovery.
Industry Update: Truck Transportation Winter 2025
