Following the release of 1st quarter earnings results from the public operators, the industry margin and cash flow setup for the balance of 2024 remains positive, with moderating internal cost inflation counterbalancing a less robust but still above-historic average CPI-based pricing environment. Subsiding wage inflation and improvements in new equipment deliveries are helping to control maintenance/repair and other operating costs. However, most solid waste volume signals remain lackluster, particularly concerning C&D and industrial. Any sustainable turnaround in organic volume growth will hinge on the timing and pace of a Fed easing cycle. In this regard, BMO economists have trimmed their forecast from cuts totaling 75 basis points this year to 50 basis points, starting with 25 in September and another 25 penciled in for December.
Industry Update: Refuse and Recycling Spring 2024
