2025 Wine Market Report
Escalating trade disputes have already curbed the flow of wine across the US and Canadian border and are poised to have significant impacts on the global trade this year. The US wine market remains the world’s largest, but consumer demand proved weaker than expected through the end of 2024 and into this year as total market volume declined 4% to 362 million cases. Volume declines are slowing and that could signal the market is arriving at a new baseline for future growth if wineries can successfully increase direct sales to offset flat premium wine sales and declining sales of lower-priced wines.
While expectations for growth have declined among wineries in the US and Canada, the majority remain confident they will increase sales and expect the total market to grow. Increasing demand among younger consumers is vital for wineries to realize the potential growth in coming years.
View the second annual BMO Wine Market Report.
KEY FINDINGS
Tariffs and retaliatory measures between the world’s top wine markets will have a profound impact on the global wine trade. This year’s survey found 13% of American wineries sell to export markets while 42% of Canadian wineries are exporters.
Nearly 40% of US wineries and more than 40% of those in Canada increased sales in 2024 with much of that growth coming from direct sales.
Gen Z drinkers, ages 21-27, accounted for a larger share of the average US winery wine club in 2024 than in the previous year.
New data reveals a decrease in drinking since the pandemic, as health concerns about alcohol continue to drive moderation.
A significant portion of frequent wine consumers are reducing their drinking because of a general desire to improve their health. Younger drinkers are more likely to participate in abstention events such as Dry January.
Most regular wine drinkers continue to enjoy a glass of wine at least once a week and purchase a bottle costing around $15 weekly and more expensive bottles monthly.
More than 70% of wineries in the United States and Canada expect to see their sales grow by more than 5% over the next five years.
Adam Beak
Managing Director and Head, Wine and Spirits
