Despite high interest rates and tighter lending conditions, the North American economy continues to move forward, seemingly oblivious to rampant recession talk. However, we still expect a mild contraction starting in the second half of the year in response to the lagged effect of tighter policies and expected further tightening. A resilient economy and labor market, alongside sticky inflation, suggest the Fed and Bank of Canada will raise rates at least one more time this year.
R is for Resilience and Rising Rates
