North American Outlook: Tariff Torrent

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  Canada's economy will suffer serious, though not life-threatening, wounds in the first major assault of the trade war. A two-quarter recession is expected before growth resumes.  

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  The U.S. economy will not be unscathed, with annual growth expected to drop below 2% for the first time in five years.  

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  The Bank of Canada will likely focus more on rising unemployment than higher inflation, lowering rates by a further 75 basis points.  

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  The Fed will need to walk a policy tightrope to balance uncertain inflation and growth risks, but will likely resume easing in September. 

FULL REPORT