Industry Update Fall 2024: Canada Truck Transportation
Potential changes to trade conditions with Canada’s largest export market have leapfrogged all other macro concerns. In the near term, blanket and potentially targeted tariffs could materialize relatively early in the new year. Further out, the USMCA comes up for renegotiation in mid-2026. While direct exposure to U.S. trade varies, autos and general manufacturing in Central Canada look most exposed. Trade policies aside, the single biggest driver for Canadian exports remains the underlying health of the U.S. economy, which the new administration aims to do everything possible to keep intact. On both sides of the border, trucking conditions remain slack, albeit with the promise of improving balance from the exit of excess capacity and an anticipated positive response in freight generation from central bank easing.