Questions the Fiscal Update Won’t Answer
- Keywords:
- covid-19
Almost since the day the North American economy began to shut down in earnest in March, a key question for markets has been: What shape the economic recovery will take: V, U, W, L, or a more exotic one like a Z, K, swoosh or even a reverse square root? Well, at the half-way point in the year, we now have the definitive answer: Yes. Yes, as in we will have a recovery; but, depending on the industry, the country, the region, or even the individual business, it may be facing any one of those shapes. We have maintained all along that the overall economy will not fit neatly into any one of these patterns, and the evidence two months into the recovery bears this out. And, in most cases, it’s the virus and its impact that will largely dictate the pace of recovery.
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Douglas Porter
Chief Economist and Managing Director
Douglas Porter has over 30 years of experience analyzing global economies and financial markets. As Chief Economist at BMO Financial Group and author of the popular…(..)
View Full Profile >Almost since the day the North American economy began to shut down in earnest in March, a key question for markets has been: What shape the economic recovery will take: V, U, W, L, or a more exotic one like a Z, K, swoosh or even a reverse square root? Well, at the half-way point in the year, we now have the definitive answer: Yes. Yes, as in we will have a recovery; but, depending on the industry, the country, the region, or even the individual business, it may be facing any one of those shapes. We have maintained all along that the overall economy will not fit neatly into any one of these patterns, and the evidence two months into the recovery bears this out. And, in most cases, it’s the virus and its impact that will largely dictate the pace of recovery.
View important Disclosure Statements here.
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