The Great Reopening
- Keywords:
- covid-19
- north american outlook
The NBER has officially declared that the longest economic expansion in history ended in February, with the downturn beginning in March and, we suspect, ending in April. A return to positive job growth in May signals the recovery is underway after two months of lockdowns to control the outbreak of the coronavirus. Attention now turns to the speed and breadth of the rebound under the threat of a flare-up. Our critical assumption that the restrictions would ease around mid-May was met, with all states and provinces loosening restrictions on non-essential business. We expect a robust recovery to unfold in the second half of the year. However, it could take two years before employment returns to pre-virus levels. Barring a vaccine, the virus' legacy will linger much longer than the pandemic itself.
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Sal Guatieri
Senior Economist
Sal Guatieri is a Senior Economist and Director at BMO Capital Markets, with two decades experience as a macro economist. With BMO Financial Group since 1994, his m…(..)
View Full Profile >The NBER has officially declared that the longest economic expansion in history ended in February, with the downturn beginning in March and, we suspect, ending in April. A return to positive job growth in May signals the recovery is underway after two months of lockdowns to control the outbreak of the coronavirus. Attention now turns to the speed and breadth of the rebound under the threat of a flare-up. Our critical assumption that the restrictions would ease around mid-May was met, with all states and provinces loosening restrictions on non-essential business. We expect a robust recovery to unfold in the second half of the year. However, it could take two years before employment returns to pre-virus levels. Barring a vaccine, the virus' legacy will linger much longer than the pandemic itself.
View important Disclosure Statements at economics.bmo.com/en/disclosure.
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