Canadian economic growth, while better than the worst fears, remains weak. Prospects for 2026 look better, however, with fiscal stimulus and lower interest rates providing support. The BMO Economics group forecasts 1.2% real GDP growth in 2025, followed by 1.4% in 2026. That said, the still contentious tariff situation remains a dark cloud, making it difficult for firms to make significant investment decisions in the absence of a firm trade deal.

On the positive side, the Bank of Canada’s previous rate cuts are providing a tailwind across the economy. Further, a significant wave of federal fiscal stimulus has already begun to roll out, including income tax cuts and ramped-up spending on the military and infrastructure. In the short run, however, the Canadian trucking industry will remain in a fragile state, with trade barriers and general uncertainty prolonging subdued domestic and cross-border freight volumes and rates, while keeping fleet fundamentals under pressure.