Canada's housing market is stabilizing, and we've probably found the floor for this long cycle. While there are still pockets of weakness, and we don't expect a forceful recovery, national sales volumes and prices appear to have bottomed. For now, we have stable sales, stable new listings and, as a result, stable prices.
Existing home sales were up 0.9% y/y in June and 0.5% from the prior month, in seasonally-adjusted terms. The combination of pent-up demand and a gradual relenting on price by sellers has stabilized sales volumes. While volumes through the first half of the year have remained subdued (low end of pre-COVID norms), they reflect a well-functioning market. New listings were down 1.3% in the month, or 1.4% from a year ago, which is helping keep the market in balance overall.
That leaves the market balance almost bang on neutral, with the national sales-to-new listings ratio improving slightly to 50.2% from 49.3% in the prior month, while the months' supply of homes on the market remained unchanged at 4.8—right around the long run average.
The national benchmark price was down 3.4% from a year ago, but declines have leveled off. On a month-to-month basis, the benchmark price was flat in seasonally-adjusted terms, while the 3-month annualized decline has moderated to -0.7% from near-7% earlier in the year. Continued stability through the rest of 2026 seems like the most likely outcome at this stage.
The regional variation in market conditions remains, but some of the hot spots are cooling, while the weak spots get less bad.
Sales growth was strongest across some of the previously weaker markets in B.C. and Ontario. Vancouver and Toronto sales were both up 9.4% y/y, while many smaller markets around Southern Ontario also posted gains. Indeed, most of these markets, which were deep in correction mode through last year, have now moved back closer to balance. As a result, price declines have largely run their course.
Alberta markets have pivoted from strength to softness. Sales-to-new listings ratios have slipped below 60% in Calgary and Edmonton, which is still balanced territory, but well down from recent readings. Sales in both markets are down from a year ago, and prices are down modestly.
Atlantic Canada markets are still tight overall, but sales were down 4%-to-6% across most cities, and price gains have leveled off. Montreal and Quebec are still firm.
In a separate release, Canadian housing starts dipped for a third consecutive month to a still-solid 239k annualized units. That leaves the year-to-date average running at 248k, and the latest 12 months averaging 256k. Across major CMAs, combined housing starts of condominiums and for homeownership have now fallen to the lowest level since the 2009 recession, and the mid-1990s recession before that; while rental starts continue to run near record highs. Most regions of the country saw starts pull back in June.