A Long December
Canada’s housing market finished the year on a soft note, with sales and prices fading further and capping off another year of a prolonged downturn. While not all markets are experiencing the same conditions, the national numbers were marked by a drop in sales volumes, while the benchmark price finished the year down 4%, or 18.6% below the early-2022 high. With mortgage rates apparently locked in place this year, affordability still adjusting and investors gone to other asset classes, it's looking like another year of stagnant activity for Canadian housing.
Existing home sales fell 2.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms in December, and were down 4.5% from year-ago levels. For the full year, sales volumes were down a modest 1.9%, with total activity marking the third-weakest year of the past decade.
New listings dipped 2.0% in the month, and were up a modest 0.8% from a year ago. That pulled down the sales-to-new listings ratio slightly to 52.3%, reflecting still-balanced overall national conditions.
Many talk about pent-up demand given the lack of sales volume in 2025, but there's probably also a significant amount of pent-up supply in the form of listings that were sitting and ultimately pulled after not selling. We'll see how this balance plays out in the spring.
The national benchmark price dipped again to end the year, and was down 4.0% y/y in December.
On the year, prices fell across BC and Ontario, while rising in most other regions. Indeed, the discrepancy of price performance was getting wide by December, with the weakest markets (e.g., parts of the GTA and exurbs) down as much as 10% y/y, while some smaller markets in Atlantic Canada and Quebec posted increases of more than 10%.
Here’s a quick rundown of local market conditions:
Southern Ontario is still the weak spot, especially in the new condo space. New condo sales have all but dried up, investors are absent and the resale market is still struggling. Apartment prices (some double-digit year-over-year declines) are faring worse than single-family, but the latter are still getting pressured by an affordability adjustment.
Vancouver and some other markets across B.C. remain soft with elevated inventories. A lower sales-to-new listings ratio in December has again tilted Vancouver into buyers' market territory. Both condo and detached prices are down roughly 5% from a year ago.
Markets in Quebec and further east remain tight almost across the board. Price gains in those regions are solid, although slowing, led by a 17% y/y jump in Quebec City (Canada's strongest market in 2025), 5.8% y/y in Montreal and 4.7% y/y in Moncton.
Calgary has cooled after a strong run through early-2025, with a lot of the compelling affordability/investor arbitrage (i.e., from Toronto to Calgary) now priced out. Sales were down 14.8% from a year ago in December, and prices are off 3.4%. Edmonton and the rest of the Prairies remain firmer.